Money Players

NBA Lottery magic: It's unbelievable

By Marc Isenberg

The outcome of tonight's lottery (5:30pm Pacific on ESPN) will determine the fate of many NBA teams for years to come. Four important factors make tonight's lotto even more intriguing:

1) Superstars in-waiting
2) Depth of draft
3) The possibility that Phoenix ends up with a lottery pick
4) The possibility that the Lottery is rigged

Superstars in-waiting
Once a decade type players Greg Oden and Kevin Durant by definition don't come along often. Centers with potential superstar talent are even rarer. In fact the majority of NBA teams no longer even play with a "true" center. That doesn't stop teams from drafting centers early and often. In the last 10 drafts, I count 5 true centers taken with the #1 pick.

2005: Andrew Bogut
2002: Yao Ming
2001: Kwame Brown
1998: Michael Olowokandi
1997: Tim Duncan

Duncan is a superstar. Ming is a few playoff round wins away from becoming a superstar. Brown and Olowokandi were full-on draft busts. The jury is still out on Bogut, although no one can fault the Bucks for selecting him #1.

Dwight Howard was the number 1 pick in 2004. He's definitely a superstar, although I consider him to be a power forward slash freak of nature.

Depth
The 2007 NBA Draft is deeper than usual. Obviously, we won't know for a couple years where this draft stacks up historically, but Oden and Durant are sure-things as sure-things get. Also helping this year's draft is the NBA 19-year old age minimum which prevented several talented players from coming out in 2006. This year's draft is stocked with a 2-year supply of eager teenagers who spent the last year in college basketball purgatory.

Phoenix/Atlanta Trade 101
The Suns are already a great team, arguably one unfortunate hip-check away from proving they are the best. Tonight they have a legitimate chance to make their trade 2005 trade with the Atlanta Hawks one of the great NBA heists in history. The Atlanta Hawks traded Joe Johnson to the Phoenix Suns in exchange for Boris Diaw and two conditional first round picks. The first pick from the Hawks comes into play tonight. Atlanta's first round pick has lottery "protection" through the Number 3 pick -- and wouldn't you know it, the Hawks are slotted to select Number 4. Translation: If statistical averages hold, Phoenix will get the 4th pick.

Here are the actual odds (courtesy of NBCSports.com)

Chance that Atlanta keeps lottery pick: 37.07%
Chance that Phoenix gets either the 4th, 5th, 6th, or 7th pick: 62.22%
Chance something really weird happens (or that there's a rounding error): .71%

Phoenix/Atlanta Trade 201
But wait, there's more. In addition the Suns also get first round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers or Boston Celtics from an earlier trade between Boston and Atlanta. Here's how it works:

"The Laker pick which is subject to protection through No. 10 in 2006, protection through No. 5 in draft years 2007-2010 and unconditional in 2011, is owed to Boston from yet another previous trade. In the year that the Laker pick is conveyed to Boston, Phoenix will receive the least favorable of Boston's own pick or the Laker pick."

We'll worry about that one next year. But the rest of the League should hope the Celtics don't choke again in tonight's lottery like they did in 1997 when they lost Tim Duncan. The Celtics have a 37.7% chance of getting either Oden or Durant.

Also interesting to note: The Bulls have the unconditional rights to the Knicks 2007 lottery pick. The Bulls chances of getting Oden or Durant: 4.13% (or 1 in 24). Bulls fans, like myself, have already enjoyed a lifetime worth of NBA championships, but Oden or Durant in a Bulls uniform would be heaven (or David  Stern) sent.   

So is  the Lottery is fixed?
I do think something weird is going to happen tonight. And if that occurs, David Stern will be at the center of another absurd conspiracy that the NBA Lottery is rigged. On second thought, maybe there is some evidence that the NBA is actually predetermined. After all, look at the NBA on TNT commercials promoting the NBA playoffs (produced with the NBA's blessing, I presume), where David Blaine shows how the NBA magic really works. Warning: Don't read the next sentence or click on the link if you don't want to know. It's unbelievable!

It's not the greatest athletes in the world playing the greatest sport. It's not even the shoes. It's just magnets strategically placed on the ball that are attracted to rims. Or it may be David Stern. Watch his hands very closely tonight.

Worker fraud feature on March Madness on Demand

By Marc Isenberg

For years employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas has put out estimates that March Madness costs businesses ridiculous money in lost productivity. The 2007 estimate is $1.2 billion.

Recognizing that not every college-basketball obsessed fan is equipped with a TV in their office, CBS created NCAA March Madness on Demand.

Problems: You want to watch college hoops, not work. CBS needs ratings. You don't want to get fired. Solution: CBS, with the NCAA's blessing plausible deniability, devised the "Boss Button."

Here's how it works: You hear footsteps...you hit the "Boss Button" and the Madness stops. And a nifty-looking, although phony, spreadsheet instantly appears. Whew, that was a close call!

CBS touts the worker fraud feature in a recent press release:

“Boss Button” — Back by popular demand, the “Boss Button” is the one feature every MMOD user in the workplace should know about. One click of the “Boss Button” and the live video action on the screen will be replaced by a silent readymade spread sheet!

What will they think of next? The "proctor button" for student athletes not interested in studying?

One shining moment from Billy Packer

By Marc Isenberg

The UNC/Duke rivalry hit a new low yesterday with the end-of-game foul by Duke's Gerald Henderson on UNC's Tyler Hansbrough.

NCAA president Myles Brand likes college sports served up nice and gentle, not "hostile and abusive."

Yesterday's Duke/UNC game was definitely the latter.

After the game, the officials released a statement characterizing the incident "as combative and confrontational action."

Reasonable? Not according to CBS's lead college basketball commentator Billy Packer.

And now for this week's installment of college hoops announcers acting badly...
Packer was absolutely convinced that the referees blew the call on Henderson's foul on Hansbrough, calling it unintentional, not flagrant.

After Henderson was ejected, Packer declared, "I think this is a poor piece of officiating. I didn't see any intent on [Henderson's] part."

Packer was making these comments while watching slo-mo replays...over and over. I am sure Henderson's intent was not to KO Hansbrough, but there is no defensive technique that I am aware of that involves using the forearm to block someone's shot.

Billy Packer, CBS's goto guy during March Madness, gets the Network's biggest college hoops assignments, including the UNC/Duke game, the ACC Tournament, and the Final Four. He is paid a lot of money (millions?) to offer expert insights about basketball, sportsmanship, officiating, you know, the nuances of the game that are often missed by less-skilled announcers.

Instead we get comments like:

"Since when do we let women control who gets into a men's basketball game? Why don't you go find a women's game to let people into?" [Packer's response to a Duke female working at Cameron Indoor when she had the audacity ask for him to present identification]

And Packer's the voice of college basketball's crown jewel?

I was also underwhelmed by Coach K's response.

According to ESPN's Pat Forde, Coach K said, "The game was over before that. I mean the outcome of the game, let's put it that way. That's unfortunate, too, that those people were in the game in that play. Maybe this wouldn't have happened."

Forde wrote, "So there. Hansbrough had it coming for playing mop-up minutes in a double-digit win. Naturally, this blame-the-victim jab went over wonderfully with [UNC coach Roy] Williams."

It is unfortunate that the late-game incident overshadowed the game, including Hansbrough's brilliant 26-point, 17-rebound performance.

Related info
In a battle of image, Duke takes black eye [Pat Forde/ESPN.com]
Wow. How embarrassing for him and CBS (includes Youtube footage)  [Gunslingers blog]

More misinformed comments from Packer's past

Don't tell Dicky V a secret, baby!

Interesting story about Dick Vitale talking smack about Florida's Joakim Noah (Thank you Loser with Socks via Deadspin.)

Here's what Vitale clearly said:

"I'm going to tell you what. I'd take Horford over him. You know who told me that in confidence? Billy Donovan grabbed me all alone and said the pro scouts are making a mistake. He said there's no way I would take Noah over - he said he would never say that publicly - over Horford."

College basketball's number one cheerleader is really a yenta...a blabbermouth who can't keep a secret. Hardly suprising.

No NBA exec would take Dicky seriously. I just don't like Squawkbox-banter of NBA prospects, especially since Vitale used a credible college basketball coach to build his case.

The story should have ended there, but Vitale has to get the last (million) word(s). So he called the radio show back to deny he ever said anything about a conversation with Donovan that mentioned Noah and his NBA prospects. The host then explained that Vitale is heard talking about precisely this and that it was broadcast on the air. Next strategy: Recant, baby, recant. He was just joking around with fans like he always does. Have I got a stock tip for you? Sell Joakim Noah (Stock ticker: CHAMP).

And what did Dicky V say about Donovan commenting on Joakim Noah and his NBA prospects? Never happened.

Thankfully Donovan is far more media savvy than Vitale. Said Donovan, "I'm not going to comment on something I didn't say."

Now what? The Big Lead suggests we "patiently await ESPN’s coverage of this one." ESPN's "ombudsman" George Solomon, care to comment?

Holland offers strategy to plug the dyke

Terry Holland, former University of Virginia basketball coach and current athletic director at East Carolina University, is one of my favorite people working in college athletics. Not only does he have a deep, thoughtful understanding of the issues, but he's not afraid to speak his mind.

I applaud the NCAA's efforts to reform the landscape of college athletics. But as Terry points out in an article in The Daily Reflect there is an important overlooked element:

Setting a goal of 80 percent graduation rates without addressing the missed class time created by regular season, conference and NCAA events does not make sense to me. How can our athletes believe that the NCAA (or any of us who are the NCAA) truly cares about academics when NCAA Championships and many other events are scheduled during the students' classes, their exam periods and even during their graduation ceremonies?

Of course, the kind of reform Terry is talking about involves leaving money offered by television on the table.